Indexfundfan\’s blog (new URL is Indextown.com)

March 31, 2006

Perfect market timer?

Filed under: Investing — indexfundfan @ 12:09 pm

We all know that holding stocks for the long run is the recipe for wealth accumulation. According to MIT Professor Andrew Lo, $1 invested in the S&P 500 index on 1/1/1926 would have grown to about $4000 by the end of 2005. Not bad considering that $1 invested in the aggregate bond market over the same period would have only grown to $18.

However, for a “perfect market timer” who knows precisely when to sell and when to buy, this perfect timer would have grown the $1 to $23 billion. Now we know why market timing remains a popular sport among investors and speculators alike.

Source: April 2006 issue of Fund Alarm.

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